Marketbell research / Seasonal signals / February baskets

Marketbell Data Lab · Report 14

Love is in the basket: what neighborhood orders reveal

A seasonal data story

Love is in the basket

Flowers, fruit, and the cities that make February their own.

By Alex Orellana · 27 August 2026in

February baskets tell a story before the card is opened. We looked across millions of anonymized orders to see where flowers surge, which foods travel with them, and how local rituals change the shape of the week.

Key takeaways

  • Valentine’s week produces two distinct order peaks rather than one.
  • Flowers rise earliest in university cities; dessert follows later in family-heavy neighborhoods.
  • Romance baskets differ sharply by region, with fruit, bakery, and prepared meals trading places.
  • Across the sample, planned gifting begins six days earlier than last-minute celebration orders.

The cart surge has two peaks

Gift-oriented orders begin climbing on the Friday before the holiday, then settle before a sharper evening peak on the fourteenth. The second peak contains fewer planned gifts and more flowers, dessert, and quick dinner ingredients.

The cart surgeDaily gift-oriented orders, indexed to a typical February day
Feb 7Feb 10Feb 14Feb 17
Gift basketsTypical orders

Flowers pull the food along

Flower orders rarely travel alone. Chocolate and bakery items climb first, followed by strawberries and sparkling drinks. Prepared meals rise closest to the holiday, suggesting a different kind of decision: not “what should I send?” but “what should tonight feel like?”

Heartline highsLift by category across Valentine’s week
FlowersPrepared meals

Where affection runs deepest

To compare places fairly, we measured the share of active customers ordering at least one flower or gift item during the week. The leading cities were not always the largest; compact college towns and winter destinations appeared often.

The Marketbell love index

Cities that know how to woo

Places with colder winters tended toward flowers and rich dessert. Warmer cities leaned into fruit, picnic-ready food, and dinner ingredients. The strongest common signal was preparation: top cities began building distinctive baskets well before the final day.

  1. Marlowe, VT
  2. Aspenfield, CO
  3. Juniper Bay, CA
  4. Marston, MA
  5. Bluehaven, MI

When sparks fly

The data changes by hour as well as date. Lunch gifting belongs mostly to offices and campuses. Evening orders widen into meals, flowers, dessert, and drinks, with the last meaningful rise shortly before local dinner time.

When sparks flyOrder lift by hour and basket type
8 amnoon4 pm8 pm

Until next time

These patterns are descriptive, not prescriptive. They show how a week of cultural attention moves through ordinary choices: a bouquet added early, a forgotten dessert recovered late, or a dinner basket assembled for two.

Next season, we’ll look at how weather changes the timing of celebration orders and whether warmer evenings move more gifting outside.

Alex Orellana

Alex studies how seasonal habits appear in anonymized commerce data.